Baby Bust?

www.brookings.edu/research/half-a-million-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust/

Researchers predict a baby bust due to Covid economic downturn.

As any parent will tell you, children come at a cost. They require outlays of money, time, and energy. Certainly, they are also a source of joy and love. In the analytical terms of economic modeling, adults “choose” the quantity of children that maximizes their lifetime well-being subject to the costs associated with childbearing. Such a framework predicts, all else equal, that a higher level of lifetime income leads people to have more children. Biological constraints may prevent some people from achieving their target number of births, or optimal timing. But there is considerable empirical support for the prediction that an increase in income leads to more births, what economists call “a positive income effect.”

While there is an element of truth here, this model is descriptive not predictive.

If money equals more babies then Americans would be having more babies than any other country, but they don’t.

In an American context, whites would have more babies than Mexicans and Africans, but they don’t.

No, the number of children a couple has largely rests on three factors: 1) The level of hedonism they are prone to 2) Whether or not they use birth control 3) How much they love life and want to generate more happiness.

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