I’m beginning to tire of the voices who are arguing for the continuation of the shutdown. The Leftist media establishment is still harping about it, but I typically expect them to take the most destructive stance on any issue. More troubling, even many on the Right are still throwing up their skirts and running through the streets with hysteria. And while I like Jack Posobiec, he is illustrative at this point because he still spends a considerable amount of time vying for the shutdown.
This is in reference to Dr. Phil criticizing the shut down. And while I do not agree with Dr. Phil’s comparing the China Virus to car accidents for obvious reasons, his larger point of not shutting down the economy due to danger is a valid point.
The stats on this image are grossly inaccurate. What is not widely reported, but should be (Posobeic is a reporter, btw) is that the number of reported infections of China Virus are only a fraction of the people who have contracted it, to the tune 1/50th. This makes the graph’s info ridiculous as it puts the death-rate of COVID-19 on par with the seasonal flu. It also points to the futility of shutdowns. The China Virus is so infectious it will spread no matter what you do. It is the virus’s high infection rate, and not it’s severity, that gives it any statistical danger at all.
The real issue that all the people advocating for a longer shutdown fail to understand is opportunity cost. When you choose path A then you forego the both positive and negative benefits of Path B. Path A with this epidemic was shutting down the world and quarantining billions of people. Path B was doing absolutely nothing, or more reasonably, quarantining only the vulnerable populations.
Less people will die from the China Virus by pursuing Path A. No one is arguing that. By quarantining en mass it slows down the spread of the novel virus, albeit at only a slightly slower rate. This allows the hospitals to operate at a lower capacity, which allows them to give superior care to COVID patients, which saves some lives who otherwise would have died. At best, Path A saves a few lives that would have been lost due to overcrowded hospitals.
Additionally, Path A is inherently wrong on a central assumption, which is that mass quarantine is even realistically possible. As much as we depend on delivery services, our current infrastructure and way of life requires that human beings interact a lot. When dealing with a virus as infectious as the China Virus and which can remain infectious within a single host as long as it does, quarantining is going to accomplish little. This is why, as I noted above, it has made little difference in the spread of infection whether or not a country has decided to quarantine at all.
Even more disturbingly, people fail recognize the negative consequences of Path A and why it is astonishingly self-defeating.
Hundreds of thousands of children could die this year due to the global economic downturn sparked by the coronavirus pandemic and tens of millions more could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis, the United Nations warned on Thursday.
Compared with adults, children infected with the coronavirus are less likely to have symptoms and more likely to have a mild illness, U.S. and Chinese studies have found.
But the U.N. report warned that “economic hardship experienced by families as a result of the global economic downturn could result in an hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths in 2020, reversing the last 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality within a single year.”
With businesses shut down and more than a billion people told to stay home to avoid spreading the virus, the International Monetary Fund has predicted the world would this year suffer its steepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The United Nations said an estimated 42 million to 66 million children could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the coronavirus crisis this year, adding to the estimated 386 million children already in extreme poverty in 2019.
This excerpt is only describing the deaths that will ensue most directly from the economic shutdown, which are the poorest people in the world starving. Let it be observed that this projected number alone will kill more people than will likely die from COVID-19.
While the people of the United States fortunately do not have the fear of mass-starvation, the economic downturn of pursuing Path A will inevitably lead to more indirect causes of suffering. It has long been known that economic depressions lead to substantial increases of anxiety, which lead to significantly higher rates of overdoses and suicide. Suicide hotlines are seeing a surge in calls of 300%. Keep in mind that there were 48,000 suicides and 68,000 overdoses last year within the US. Imagine those numbers quadrupling. Recognize further that depressed people require healthy people to socially interact with to keep them in good spirits so that they do not do the unthinkable. Yet, these vulnerable people will not be able to receive quality social interaction with people due to quarantine.
Then, there is the rise of violent crime that accompanies depression. While there is some logic that hard times create desperation, this appears to not be the case in the affluent West where we have lofty welfare systems. There is more likely a surge in crime that accompany depressions because Police Departments face large budget cuts. The less police there are on the streets the more Jadarius feels like he can get away with murder.
Now, let’s compare the dismal fallout of Path A with the Pros and Cons of Plan B.
In this alternative plan, the whole population conducts business as usual in the face of the pandemic, except for the very small population that is vulnerable, i.e. Boomers and people with comorbities. This 20% of the population locks themselves in their homes for the month. There is very little economic impact as these demographics are largely the population that is not working anyway. There will be plenty of available hands to deliver food and essential supplies to their doors in a sanitary fashion. The big sacrifice here is that Bob & Brenda Boomer don’t get to go to happy hour five days a week like they usually do… for an entire month!
The rest of the population has a really shitty month. Yes, there is an economic impact here due to a lack of production because people are calling out sick left and right. Hospitals are particularly overrun from weeks 4-6 and a few thousand people die due to the hospitals not being able to keep up. It’s a really shitty couple of weeks. But, then it’s over, and life returns to normal and 80% of the population is now immune.
No suicide increase. No crimewave. No unemployment. No inflation. No paying satanic billionaires to stick you with needles. Sports are still on TV. And you never had to dip into your savings account or live of your credit card.
You can decide which path is better.