US Death Toll Prediction Lowered

It’s nice being right. The University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics has lowered its estimates on the Coronavirus fatalities.

Coronavirus death toll estimate is lowered from 82,000 to 60,000 and the peak day for death is brought forward to April 12 where more than 2,200 Americans are predicted to die in 24 hours, new data shows

From their website:

The strange aspect about these estimates are that they are still considerably lower than what the seeming moron Dr. Fauci’s was estimating. I simply have no idea how Mr. We Should Never Shake Hands Ever Again would hypothesize that a quarter-million Americans would perish from this virus. If I were a bit more conspiracy minded, I might be inclined to believe that Dr. Fauci is not that stupid, but that he is perhaps sinister enough to foment fear into the American public. He is in cohoots with Bill Gates who wants to stick needles into every human being who are not his biological children. So, the jury is still out on whether Fauci is stupid, sinister, or both.

I am not, of course, a professional statistician. And when I guessed the death toll would be around 60,000 a week ago, it was simply by looking at the data and doing some rough math in my head. Going back to another point that I made last week, don’t listen to the doomsday forecasters. They are almost always wrong. Just as you should always be reticent about any tribe who wants to heal the world you should also be skeptical of any professionals who are claiming to predict doom and gloom. All such predictions, like the one cited above, have a ton of assumptions built into them. And to paraphrase a movie from childhood, assumptions are the mother of all fuck-ups.

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