Darkness Before The Dawn

If we can rely on what occurred in Italy and Spain, we seem to be entering that phase of the Coronavirus crisis where the level of new infections and fatalities rise drastically to be followed in short time by the falling rates in the same two categories. We should see all of this take place over the next two weeks, though at different stages. If the experts are to be trusted, we should see the peak of new infections within the next five days. Then, six days after that point, so eleven days from now, we should be seeing our peak day in fatalities.

We’ll see.

I am cautiously optimistic that the battle will begin to turn, but the numbers don’t really make sense to me. Trump mentioned last night that 1.67 million Americans have been tested at this point, which sounds like a ton of tests, but is still less than 1% of our population. 99% of us are not in the clear.

On the other hand, while there have been only the 1.67 million tests, we can reasonably conclude that 336,000 cases of the virus within the US, which is a mere .1% of our population, represents a fraction of the people who have been infected. It stands to reason that many infected people did not receive testing if they were not experiencing severe symptoms. Many people who were confirmed to have the virus were not showing symptoms at all.

Lastly, and again as a positive sign, the number of new infections actually went down day over day yesterday for the only second time since the outbreak began in earnest in the US. While this is certainly something to celebrate, I would remind everyone to take this number with a grain of salt. As I have observed over these past few weeks in tracking the new infection stats, they tend to be under-tracked over the weekend only to surge up disproportionately when Monday’s number come in.

Like I said, we’ll see.

In the meantime, perhaps it’s safe enough to go to the grocery store, contra Dr. Fauci, who recommended that you stay away from the supermarkets for the next two weeks. I tend to be in the camp that believes you are more likely to die from starvation than the coronavirus.

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