About a week ago, I already had to correct myself about the curve beginning to flatten with novel infections of the Coronavirus within the United States. The data showed a one-day decrease in new infections, which I took to mean we were already beginning to see the peak of the outbreak. However, after continuing to watch the pattern over the following few days, I observed that there must have been some type of faulty reporting that occurred with that one time anomaly. So, I enter these waters with trepidation realizing that that even relying on official reports may not give us perfect information to work with.
That disclaimer being stated, I think we have some good news to report. This time, the information shows a pattern over the course of a few days instead of a single day only. Below listed are each day’s new infections and the corresponding percentage increase in new infections over the previous day.
3/24: 11,075 (9%)
3/25: 13,355 (21%)
3/26: 17,224 (29%)
3/27: 18,691 (9%)
3/28: 19,452 (4%)
3/29: 19,913 (2%)
3/30: 20,353 (2%)
Here’s the representation visually on a graph.
Once again, we do not want to make too much of a prediction on too little of information, but it certainly appears over the past five days that we have seen a noticeable slow down in the rate of infection. This is to be expected as it was two weeks ago that America began to shut down in earnest. As everyday people began to lessen their close proximity interactions with the majority of people in their social network the virus has had less opportunity to spread. This is an encouraging sign assuming that the trend maintains course at tapering off.
It is important to keep in mind that we are not near the actual end of this epidemic. Quite the contrary, we likely still have another week before the infection rate finally peaks. Furthermore, as these stats graph as bell curves, we can expect the regression of cases on the other side of the peak to lower at the same pace as they are currently increasing. This means for the next two-weeks we will still see many new daily cases in the 18-25k range. Not great. Worse still, the peak death rate, which as Vox Day pointed out last night on his Darkstream occurs six days after the peak day of new infections, is likely still a few weeks out. Stated more bluntly, there is still plenty of despair to come over the next month. The majority of Americans who will be infected will get that infection over the next 10-14 days, if I am correct.
What I want to point out, however, is that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. It appears that the quarantines are being effective at slowing the rate of infection, which is awesome.
What remains to be seen is what happens next in terms of procedure. After all, the majority of Americans will not be infected in this initial outbreak and thus we will not be immune to it once the quarantine is lifted. This leaves us all vulnerable to infection once the quarantines are lifted unless some other plan of action is in place. Hopefully by that time, we can implement a more coherent plan like the one that I discussed yesterday prescribed by Dr. Raoult. That procedure requires mass-testing, isolation and quarantine of sick individuals, and a quick regimen of chloroquine and azithromycin to combat the virus. Whether this model can be implemented will largely depend on how fast the CDC can acquire and organize the necessary resources.