I cannot claim to have followed the spread of COVID-19 very closely. By that disclaimer, I simply mean that I have not been checking in on the numbers daily. Nevertheless, these charts that I will show track what the daily numbers have been since the outbreak began within the US and they tentatively point towards an optimistic reality, namely, that the spread of the Coronavirus could already be slowing down.
The authorities keep telling us that the strategic imperative is “Flattening The Curve” in the viral spread. This is primarily for the purposes of not overwhelming medical care facilities by not having too many patients at a given point in time seeking medical care.
But additionally, flattening the curve would indicate that the virus spread is somewhat under control and that the various quarantine levels are being effective. Most people are unprepared to consider the possibility that the infection rate is already slowing, as Coronavirus spread has been the most rampant and terrifying in the US over the past week. But, let’s take a look at the numbers and in them I think there is some silver-lining. The figures on the charts (Source Website) are comparable to the numbers found on Johns Hopkins tracker, which is considered a reliable source for stats relating to the spread of COVID-19.
- The number of total cases had been rising by about 50% day over day this past week. Yesterday, however, there was only a 25% increase.
2. Next, let’s examine the death toll. Now, the death toll is not as a revealing of a statistic because it is not measuring the rate of inspection, but rather how many people are suffering immensely. The death toll is really a measure of two different things. It quantifies how we were fairing with the spread approximately ten days prior combined with how our hospitals are fairing at treating the worst cases right now. So, with those humbling observations in mind, it is still fair to say that a declining day over day death toll is a positive sign on a macro scale. For the last two days, the US death toll has been declining. For the last three days the tolls have been 57, 49, and 46 sequentially.
3. Lastly, and by far most revealing, the numbers of new cases went DOWN in the US for the first time since we have been tracking the spread of the virus. Notice, beginning two weeks ago that we were only having a modest increase in novel cases, likely due to victims not having access to testing kits. Yet, the number of cases increased daily. Then, beginning this past week as testing became more accessible, the number of new cases began to increase exponentially. But then, over the past two days there was already a drastic reduction in the number of new cases, which indicates that the quarantine measures are being effective.
It could be too soon to tell if the Coronavirus infection rate has indeed slowed down or if these numbers are due to faulty reporting, a lack of access test kits, or even simply infected people being unwilling to be tested. Nevertheless, modest quarantine efforts did begin in many places approximately two-weeks ago, so it would be logical to assume that those efforts would be showing some positive results.